MLB Player Props
By the Numbers
It’s easy to go Full TILT
But NEVER go full Tilt.. It would be really easy for me to revert back to the old habit of “chasing” bets today after some of last night’s final scores. Scherzer went 5.1 IP giving up 5ER on 8 Hits, 2 BB’s, and only 2 K’s for almost a full 2.00 WHIP. After losing 9-0, the Mets go down 0-2 in the series with the Brewers getting outscored 19-0
Can it get any worse? Maybe… The Detroit Tigers, projected to have the 5th worst record in the MLB by FanGraphs ZiPs projections, beat the Houston Astros for the 2nd straight night. Framber Valdez had a strong performance going 7IP giving up 3Runs (2Earned) and 9 K’s. It was a 3-2 game heading into the 8th inning but Houston’s bullpen quickly lost control. Giving up 3 runs across the final two innings. For everyone who took Detroit +230 for the second straight night…. Congrats, you are a GOD.
So, instead of going full Tilt and hammering the Astros -1.5 (115) lets take a look at some Player Props behind the numbers:
Player Props:
JT Realmuto - Hit Single (-120)
H2H against Cole: 11/17 | 10 singles | 1HR | .497 xwOBA | 10% Whiff Rate
Normally I would never hunt something as specific as hitting a single, but when I saw these numbers head to head it got me thinking.. This has to be an approach thing. He respects the “stuff” Garrit Cole possesses and he goes into the box thinking one thing: Don’t get too big with the swing. And he takes what Cole is giving and has produced… 11/17 to be exact.
Eddie Rosario - Over 0.5 Hits (-190)
H2H against Mikolas: 4/5 | 1HR | 1.341 xSLG | .765 xwOBA | 11% Whiff Rate
Obviously this is a super small sample size, but Eddie Rosario is finally healthy. After having eye surgery last May, Rosario is ready to bounce back and solidify the Braves Left Field position. It’s a full year since the eye surgery and he is finally looking like the Eddie Rosario of old. He came off the bench last night for the Braves and quickly added 2 singles in his first 2 plate appearances. Look, I get it, (-190) is a little steep to just go off a gut feeling. And yes, as a Braves fan, I may have a little bias going with this pick. So maybe stay off of it but remember.. I told you so.
All jokes aside, lets get a little loose with these next two.
Josh Donaldson - Over 0.5 HR (+750)
H2H against Nola: 6/16 | 2HR | .894 xSLG | .578 xwOBA | 97mph avg Exit Velo on the 16 batted balls against Nola.
Anthony Rizzo - Over 0.5 HR (+550) / Over 0.5 Hits (-139)
H2H against Nola: 5/15 | 2HR | .642 xSLG | .446 xwOBA | 99mph avg Exit Velo on 15 batted balls against Nola.
Like I said, Loose. Obviously Donaldson gives us the most value here, but I wouldn’t be made at taking either him or Rizzo. Flip a coin. The rainmaker himself is having a slow start but that ends today. Speaking of flipping a coin, lets look at the other side of the coin with these player props:
Ozzie Albies - Under 0.5 Hits (+155)
H2H against Mikolas: 1/10 | .142 xBA | .240 xwOBA
Gleyber Torres - Under 0.5 Hits (+127)
H2H against Nola: 0/9 | .104 xBA | .122 xwOBA | 6 K’s | 33% Whiff Rate
Francisco Lindor - Under 0.5 Hits (+130)
H2H against Corbin Burnes: 3/15 | .163 xBA | .153 xwOBA | 8 K’s | 33% Whiff Rate
These are tough.. because at the end of the day these Starting Pitchers most likely aren’t going to throw a complete game (unless you are Sandy Alcantara). So we are guaranteed an at bat, maybe two, where it’s going to get really tight! That’s normally why I don’t like taking the “Hits” line, especially the under, but the numbers speak for themselves. With that said, I will leave us with one where we hopefully won’t have to clinch tight on the last few at-bats:
Taylor Ward - Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130)
H2H against Chris Flexen: 3/13 | .174 xBA | .180 xwOBA | 4 K’s | 23% Whiff Rate
Let’s tally a few wins on the board today. May the luck be with you all. Look forward to tomorrow’s “Finding the Edge” post with a brand new slate of series across the MLB to dive into.