But NEVER go full Tilt.. It would be really easy for me to revert back to the old habit of “chasing” bets today after some of last night’s final scores. Scherzer went 5.1 IP giving up 5ER on 8 Hits, 2 BB’s, and only 2 K’s for almost a full 2.00 WHIP. After losing 9-0, the Mets go down 0-2 in the series with the Brewers getting outscored 19-0

Can it get any worse? Maybe… The Detroit Tigers, projected to have the 5th worst record in the MLB by FanGraphs ZiPs projections, beat the Houston Astros for the 2nd straight night. Framber Valdez had a strong performance going 7IP giving up 3Runs (2Earned) and 9 K’s. It was a 3-2 game heading into the 8th inning but Houston’s bullpen quickly lost control. Giving up 3 runs across the final two innings. For everyone who took Detroit +230 for the second straight night…. Congrats, you are a GOD.

So, instead of going full Tilt and hammering the Astros -1.5 (115) lets take a look at some Player Props behind the numbers:

Player Props:

JT Realmuto - Hit Single (-120)

H2H against Cole: 11/17 | 10 singles | 1HR | .497 xwOBA | 10% Whiff Rate

Normally I would never hunt something as specific as hitting a single, but when I saw these numbers head to head it got me thinking.. This has to be an approach thing. He respects the “stuff” Garrit Cole possesses and he goes into the box thinking one thing: Don’t get too big with the swing. And he takes what Cole is giving and has produced… 11/17 to be exact.

Eddie Rosario - Over 0.5 Hits (-190)

H2H against Mikolas: 4/5 | 1HR | 1.341 xSLG | .765 xwOBA | 11% Whiff Rate

Obviously this is a super small sample size, but Eddie Rosario is finally healthy. After having eye surgery last May, Rosario is ready to bounce back and solidify the Braves Left Field position. It’s a full year since the eye surgery and he is finally looking like the Eddie Rosario of old. He came off the bench last night for the Braves and quickly added 2 singles in his first 2 plate appearances. Look, I get it, (-190) is a little steep to just go off a gut feeling. And yes, as a Braves fan, I may have a little bias going with this pick. So maybe stay off of it but remember.. I told you so.

All jokes aside, lets get a little loose with these next two.

Josh Donaldson - Over 0.5 HR (+750)

H2H against Nola: 6/16 | 2HR | .894 xSLG | .578 xwOBA | 97mph avg Exit Velo on the 16 batted balls against Nola.

Anthony Rizzo - Over 0.5 HR (+550) / Over 0.5 Hits (-139)

H2H against Nola: 5/15 | 2HR | .642 xSLG | .446 xwOBA | 99mph avg Exit Velo on 15 batted balls against Nola.

Like I said, Loose. Obviously Donaldson gives us the most value here, but I wouldn’t be made at taking either him or Rizzo. Flip a coin. The rainmaker himself is having a slow start but that ends today. Speaking of flipping a coin, lets look at the other side of the coin with these player props:

Ozzie Albies - Under 0.5 Hits (+155)

H2H against Mikolas: 1/10 | .142 xBA | .240 xwOBA

Gleyber Torres - Under 0.5 Hits (+127)

H2H against Nola: 0/9 | .104 xBA | .122 xwOBA | 6 K’s | 33% Whiff Rate

Francisco Lindor - Under 0.5 Hits (+130)

H2H against Corbin Burnes: 3/15 | .163 xBA | .153 xwOBA | 8 K’s | 33% Whiff Rate

These are tough.. because at the end of the day these Starting Pitchers most likely aren’t going to throw a complete game (unless you are Sandy Alcantara). So we are guaranteed an at bat, maybe two, where it’s going to get really tight! That’s normally why I don’t like taking the “Hits” line, especially the under, but the numbers speak for themselves. With that said, I will leave us with one where we hopefully won’t have to clinch tight on the last few at-bats:

Taylor Ward - Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130)

H2H against Chris Flexen: 3/13 | .174 xBA | .180 xwOBA | 4 K’s | 23% Whiff Rate

Let’s tally a few wins on the board today. May the luck be with you all. Look forward to tomorrow’s “Finding the Edge” post with a brand new slate of series across the MLB to dive into.

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Sports gambling: Identifying the best games to wager on

In the world of sports gambling the house is RAKING.. but Major League Baseball might be the way in. It’s a slow, meticulous grind but there is a simple way to find the EDGE.

Looking at FanGraph’s ZiPs Team projections the Top teams in the league have anywhere between %55 - %60 win percentages over the course of 162 games. As I stated earlier this a long, slow, meticulous grind. Using the ZiPs team projections and the LOG5 formula I’ve identified a few series to take a closer look into:

Guardians @ Atheltics Series

Log5 gives the following Win%: Guardians(58.17%) and the Athletics (41.83%). These percentages are given all things are equal.. and they aren’t. The Guardians have a guy named Shane Bieber who is a huge factor in how this game is played out and is not factored in to the percentages above. The best line I have found for this matchup on 04/04/2023 is on DraftKings with the Guardians (-180). At -180 the implied odds are around 64% so at face value there isn’t any EDGE. (-5.83%) to be exact. I think we can find 9% - 10% in the former Triple Crown and CY Young winner flipping the edge to about 5% in the favor of the good guys. Take the Guardians and find a line -180 or lower.

Tigers @ Astros Series

Log5 gives the Astros (61.35%) and the Tigers (37.42%) chance to win. The tigers won the opening game of the series last night in extra innings. This of course was against the Astros rookie starter: Hunter Brown. Tonight the Tigers will face Astros Ace Framber Valdez. The WynnBET sportsbook is offering the Astros (-270). I know, I know, this bet is not for everyone but given the Tigers have already notched their win for this Series 72% implied odds isn’t really as bad as it seems.

The Bonus game for the night comes with the Mets facing the Brewers at American Family Field. As tradition here: Log5 gives the Mets(54.42%) and the Brewers (45.58%). The Brewers took game1 of the series yesterday 10-0. The Mets counter with the bulldog himself, Max Scherzer and this is a different bulldog this year. He is an animal with the new pitch clock. Attacking hitters like never before. BetRiver was offering the Mets as low as (-140) at one point. I wouldn’t be mad at taking them F5 (-0.5) -110.

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